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  #1  
Old January 18th, 2011, 10:16 AM
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India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

Goldman Sachs warns against investing in India

London . Goldman Sachs , the US investment banking giant, has issued a short-term alert over investing in India and China due to the impact of rising inflation, advising clients to rotate into Wall Street and other bourses as a safer bet over coming months, a media report said on Tuesday.
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According to the report, India is an even bigger worry, with yawning twin deficits, and overheating visible on all fronts. The nation's central bank warned this week of "surging inflation".

"India's current account deficit is running at a record pace of 4.1 percent of GDP and it is 100 percent funded by short-term portfolio flows, which cannot be relied on indefinitely," said Moe, describing Mumbai's bourse as "crowded".

Goldman insists that the longer-term super-boom remains healthy in both the BRIC nations and a broader group of countries, or "N-11", led by South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines, Turkey and Egypt.

Goldman expects China to rebound strongly in the second half of the year, distancing itself from the ultra-bearish views of those such as hedge fund star Jim Chanos betting that Beijing will prove unable to engineer a soft landing from its property bubble.

The surprise for 2011 will be a torrid recovery in the US, with growth of 3.4 percent to 3.8 percent, as the country confounds critics and averts a post-bubble "Lost Decade". Even Japan will outshine China, pulling out of its deflation trap, with earnings growth of 23 percent this year and 22 percent in 2012.

Kathy Matsui, Goldman's Tokyo strategist, said Japanese equities may be the best way to play the Pacific growth story since the average price-to-book ratio is 1.0, compared to 1.9 for China and the rest of emerging Asia.

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  #2  
Old January 18th, 2011, 10:49 AM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

In a way it sounds true. What is the point in investing when you know the markets are going to stabilize soon. But Future contracts sound like an option.
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  #3  
Old January 18th, 2011, 10:54 AM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

soon? thats what we have been hearing for a long time.
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  #4  
Old January 18th, 2011, 11:01 AM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

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Originally Posted by kkkk View Post
soon? thats what we have been hearing for a long time.
GS's predictions usually are right (usually being the key). If their research show that its a short term phenomenon, there are chances that they are true. GS survived the crisis with their foresight while many banks went under; so I sort of respect their research.
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  #5  
Old January 18th, 2011, 11:33 AM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

Rakhiji, ek minute ke liye GS ki baat - leave it.
we have been discussing issues in India - mostly to do with price rise etc. I believe they are more or less connected with inflation, there is no political will to take care of this problem. We are talking about reshuffling the cabinet at this time when the primary focus should be stability!
I think the night is going to become darker before dawn....
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  #6  
Old January 18th, 2011, 12:05 PM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

Now how many posts do I have to wait till this gets the usual political tone that 'because of Congress' all this is happening!
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  #7  
Old January 18th, 2011, 12:09 PM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

Quote:
Originally Posted by echarcha View Post
Now how many posts do I have to wait till this gets the usual political tone that 'because of Congress' all this is happening!
Isn't it obvious... that India was shining when BJP was in power. With Congress it is no longer shining. I don't know how much GS spent for this simple study
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  #8  
Old January 18th, 2011, 12:09 PM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

Quote:
Originally Posted by echarcha View Post
Now how many posts do I have to wait till this gets the usual political tone that 'because of Congress' all this is happening!
hmmm perhaps you are bored of it. abhi tak it was all our internal fighting but it is now having very serious repercussions.
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  #9  
Old January 18th, 2011, 12:15 PM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

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Originally Posted by kkkk View Post
hmmm perhaps you are bored of it. abhi tak it was all our internal fighting but it is now having very serious repercussions.
I concur. If a giant like GS decides NOT to invest, its going to impact other investment banks too. They will take a hint from GS and will reduce their investments.
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  #10  
Old January 18th, 2011, 12:26 PM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

So now all the investments and MOUs signed with Gujarat will be reversed??

Goldman Sachs was involved in dirty tricks during the housing meltdown. And just because they say 'Oh be wary' does not mean everything comes to a standstill.
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  #11  
Old January 18th, 2011, 12:41 PM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

Ok good that GS issued warning - Now I will invest my million dollars in US itself.
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  #12  
Old January 18th, 2011, 12:41 PM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

Quote:
Originally Posted by echarcha View Post
So now all the investments and MOUs signed with Gujarat will be reversed??

Goldman Sachs was involved in dirty tricks during the housing meltdown. And just because they say 'Oh be wary' does not mean everything comes to a standstill.
Adminji, I strongly support GS. i am wondering which episode/controversy you are referring to (AIG, Greek debt, which one)? They have the best (compared to others) portfolios which hedge their risks well. Its not their fault...If you can be specific, i will make an attempt to defend GS.
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  #13  
Old January 18th, 2011, 02:00 PM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

Quote:
Originally Posted by echarcha View Post
So now all the investments and MOUs signed with Gujarat will be reversed??

Goldman Sachs was involved in dirty tricks during the housing meltdown. And just because they say 'Oh be wary' does not mean everything comes to a standstill.
and you bury your head in the sand! good for you
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  #14  
Old January 18th, 2011, 08:43 PM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

I agree with the sentiment that India is no longer a major investment destination for the FIIs. Not because Goldman Sachs recommend it, but because it has been obvious for quite some time. As stated by other members, inflation and fiscal deficit combined make it unattractive. Many other analysts have been saying this for quite some time now.

The logic is simple. The input cost rises --> the production cost rises --> the cost of goods rises --> ?more inflation.

A related article :
(it's a multi-page article so please check the link)
http://www.rediff.com/business/slide...d/20110118.htm

Quote:
Why India needs to be afraid, very afraid

Last updated on: January 18, 2011 19:24 IST
Shishir Bhate

What can you say about an economic growth engine that has been chugging along merrily at an astounding 8 per cent rate for almost a decade? We have heard many answers to that question, ad nauseam, throughout 2010. That its per capita income has more than doubled from $422 in 2001-2002 to $982 in 2009-2010.
That its 300-million-strong middle class is driving the nation's consumer boom like at no other time in its illustrious history.
....more
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  #15  
Old January 19th, 2011, 02:22 AM
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Re: India no longer shining - Goldman Sachs advises against investing in India

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rakhi View Post
GS's predictions usually are right (usually being the key). If their research show that its a short term phenomenon, there are chances that they are true. GS survived the crisis with their foresight while many banks went under; so I sort of respect their research.
GS doesn't know what they are doing. They predicted oil at 200, which never went. They came with a doom story for gold, and quickly retracted. Can't find the link, but this might give a hint.

Foresight???? Surviving with 12 billion dollar bailout and 3200 layoffs is an exceptional foresight.

India is shining. By mid year sensex WILL hit 15k and by mid or 3rd qtr 2012 23k. Thats a 54% gain.
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