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Old August 23rd, 2009, 04:34 AM
ashdoc ashdoc is offline
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BJPs internal report on poll debacle

The Bharatiya Janata Party [ Images ] has suffered defeats in 2004 and 2009 elections. The party has seen its vote share decline and its "core constituency" weaned away by its opponents. The party with a difference had commissioned a three-member team headed by Bal Apte to analyse its defeat in the 2009 polls. It was presented at the BJP's 'chintan baithak' in Shimla
This is the full report.
Analysis of Election Results
2009 Election campaign themes of the National Democratic Alliance
Majboot Neta – Nirnayak Sarkar [ Images ]
India's Internal Security
Price Rise
There is a popular perception amongst our activists and supporters that these issues either did not get positioned effectively or there was a mismatch or both to some extent.
2. Unity of Leadership
The perceived lack of unity amongst the leaders
3. Mid-campaign Distractions
Mid-campaign distractions like projection of Sri Narendra Modi [ Images ] as PM candidate, the Varun Gandhi [ Images ] controversy and reported internal squabbles within the party took centre-stage and pushed aside the main campaign issues.
4. Failure to advertise the agenda of the party
Also, we failed to highlight and bring on record the achievements of present NDA-ruled states. We also could not emphasise the effective governance of 6 years of NDA rule at centre earlier. We let the opposition get away with their single point agenda of defeating the BJP.
Media – both print and visual – could not be motivated to highlight the socio-economic agenda of BJP and nail the Congress for it's failure on price front, development front, internal security etc. Delay in manifesto also contributed to the same.
Important issues like 35 kg of Rs 2/- per kg rice to each Below Poverty Line family, hike in IT exemption limit, Ladli Lakshmi Yojana and other such attractive policies; could not find a place in the party's main propaganda and failed to reach the common man.
In nutshell, we failed to set an agenda of our own and let our adversaries and the biased and hostile media dictate it to us!
5. Chink in our armour-Strategy failure
Though we started very early, still our overall candidate selection process got delayed. Candidates' selection was also not appropriate at some places.

The lack of leaders of stature and profile affected our performance in certain states. (Orissa, West Bengal [ Images ], Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu).

Party advertisements/campaign should have been more meticulous, synchronized and made effective.

Personal attack on Manmohan Singh [ Images ] did not go well with people.

Mumbai [ Images ] vs Kandahar: We failed to corner Congress on 26/11 Mumbai attack. Instead, we let them and the media divert the issue and drag us on to Kandahar. As such, instead of discussing internal security and UPA's inefficacy in controlling terror, we ended up discussing Kandahar on every forum!

Also, our response on Kandahar was disappointing and left much to be desired. For no reason, we always appeared to be on the back foot and played defensive.

Poor alliance management -- Break up at the eleventh hour in Orissa where we were caught unawares.

In Delhi [ Images ], we lost the game even before it was played out. Similarly, in Haryana, we failed to assess the popular mood and gave the Congress a virtual walk-over

In Punjab [ Images ], the alliance partner's attitude has affected the NDA's performance. [The alliance management based on the past experiences has to be thoroughly discussed and a meticulous plan needs to be evolved for the future].

Almost-zero presence of the BJP/NDA in four states that account for 144 seats [Kerala [ Images ], Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal]. Congress got 103 seats from these states.

Failure to connect with the Youth?

Rajasthan and Uttarakhand-Internal squabbles, lack of unity at local level, factionalism and the BJP central leadership's failure in resolving the same in time, cost us these states eventually. Even in Delhi, lack of cohesion has affected our campaign co-ordination.
No visible enthusiasm and involvement of cadres. No proper cadre mobilization took place before elections. [Of the whole movement]

Welfare agenda of our state governments (Madhya Pradesh [ Images ], Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, and Bihar] has helped us in retaining our strength in respective states.

6. External Factors
Left propping Mayawati [ Images ] as PM may have worked against it and in favour of Congress.
Populist Schemes of the United Progressive Alliance [ Images ] - NREGA and Loan Waiver - may have tilted the balance in rural India. We need to see if it really worked in favour of UPA and to what extent? Another factor could also be the announcement of high MSP [minimum support price].

7. Vote Share %:
BJP vote share as well as total number of votes was the highest in 1998. In 1999, the vote share fell marginal but that was due to the fact that BJP contested 49 seats less than in 1998, due to higher number of alliance partners. But since 1999, the party has witnessed a consistent downfall in both. In 2009, it has fallen down to the 1991 level.


The gap between the Congress and BJP that was reducing upto 1999 has started increasing since. In 2009, the gap has mounted to 9.75%. In terms of total number of votes polled too, the Congress has polled around 4 Cores more votes than that of the BJP.

8. Vote Bias
The elections in India have strangely thrown different results in different years for political parties with almost the same vote share. The following examples will prove this point:
* In 1998, the Congress polled 28.33% of votes to earn 114 seats. But in 2009, it won 206 seats with 28.55% of vote share. Although the vote share isn't the same, the number of seats went by a whooping 92.

* Trinamool Congress [ Images ] increased its tally by 17 seats with a mere increase of 1.13% in vote share.

* Laloo Yadav's [ Images ] RJD lost a meager 1.19% votes in Bihar but in terms of seats, it faced a major shock. It had lost 12 seats in 2009 as compared to 2004.

9. Anti-incumbency at the Candidate-level for BJP
In 2004, BJP fielded 156 of its 182 sitting MPs out of which 80 regained the mandate. This means 51.28% of the repeated MPs were re-elected.

In 2009, BJP fielded 71 of its 138 sitting MPs out of which 36 regained the mandate. This means 50.37% of the repeated MPs were re-elected.

The data for the two Lok Sabha elections clearly show that the anti-incumbency plays a heavy role against candidates repeated by BJP. This is irrespective of whether the party repeated 85% of its MPs or 51%; the result is the same.

Corrective action BJP needs to take:
BJP needs to introduce a performance appraisal /audit mechanism to continuously evaluate and monitor the performance of its representatives throughout the term both on the floor of the house and in the constituency.
10.BJP's downfall in SC seats
In 1996, when BJP didn't have many allies, it contested 70 of 79 SC seats and won 30. This means the strike rate of BJP in SC seats was 42%. This was more than the party's overall strike rate, which was 34%.
However in 2009, when BJP went into polls with more alliance partners as compared to 1996, it contested 63 of 83 SC seats but managed to win only 12. This means in 2009, the strike rate of BJP in SC seats was 19%. However, the party's overall strike rate in 2009 was 27%.
This is way below the party's performance in 1996. In 1996, the party's performance in SC seats was much better than its overall performance. However in 2009 the performance in SC seats was worse than its overall performance. The downfall in BJP's performance in SC seats is consistent since 2004. It is clear that the party has to think about a serious revival plan to regain the earlier held position.
11. BJP's downfall in ST seats
In 1999, BJP contested 32 of 41 ST seats and won 21. This means the strike rate of BJP in ST seats was 65.62%.
In 2004, the party again contested 32 of 41 ST seats but managed to win only 15. This means the strike rate of BJP in ST seats was 46.87%.
Now in 2009, the party contested 44 of 48 ST seats but managed to win only 15. This means the strike rate of BJP in ST seats has further come down to 34.09%.
The downfall in BJP's performance in ST seats is consistent since 2004. It is obvious that it's support amongst the ST has gone down. The party must take note of this erosion of our support base and take remedial actions or think of a serious revival plan to restore it's position.
12. Muslim factor in the polls
By and large, Indian Muslims have included Congress in its options. Various efforts from the UPA and its leadership have increased its acceptability amongst Muslims. As expected, in states where BJP was in direct fight with Congress, Muslims voted for the Congress candidates.

In states where there are more than two major players, Muslims voted for the candidate who could give the toughest fight to the BJP candidate. That means in a state like UP, Muslims chose their party/candidate at the constituency level. Therefore, whereas Muslims preferred BSP in Western Uttar Pradesh [ Images ], they preferred Congress in the Central Uttar Pradesh.

In certain states, Muslim-parties which contested parliamentary elections for the first time performed well. The biggest such example is Assam where AUDF won 17% of the votes at the Cost of Congress. In Eastern Uttar Pradesh two Muslim parties - Ulema Council and Peace Party also contested elections, and polled around 10% in five constituencies. This indicates that in certain areas of the country, Muslims have started thinking in terms of promoting political parties which are led by Muslims and whose main agenda is to work for the Muslim issues. IUML has become an attractive and feasible role model for Muslims for using the democratic process for their advantage.

In Kerala, Muslims have largely supported Congress and IUML alliance. In West Bengal, Muslims have voted in favor of Trinamool - Congress front.

13. Voting Trends - Myths & Realities

That urban voters moved towards the Congress due to young leadership of Rahul is a myth.

While it did extremely well in Delhi, its performance in Mumbai was not good. Still it gained seats due to MNS cutting into Shiv Sena-BJP votes.

Congress major gain in voting percentage in urban area, was in Delhi by 2.3% compared to 2004.

Congress mainly gained from decline and division in the vote share of its opponents. The reality of Congress win: Fall in BJP votes [marginal] but more so negative swings against regional parties such as the Telugu Desam Party (8 per cent), the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam [ Images ] (7 per cent) and the Samajwadi Party (4 per cent); the emergence of new parties like the Prajarajyam Party in Andhra Pradesh; the rise of the MNS in Maharashtra.

The adverse effect of the break-up of the BJP-Biju Janata Dal alliance in Orissa.

In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress secured 21 of the 80 seats, even though it polled only 18.25 per cent of the popular vote. Last time it had polled 12.04% votes and won 9 seats.
The BJP polled 17.50% votes only -- 0.75% less than the Congress -- and won 10 seats in 2009. In 2004 it had polled 22.17% but won only 10 seats.

What helped the Congress in UP was the favourable distribution of votes -- concentrated in a few pockets -- that helped the party to translate its fewer votes into seats.
The Congress' performance was more targeted in 2004 and 2009 - more seats even with lesser number of votes.

NDA performance in States

1. NDA performance in its traditional strongholds
Out of 346 seats covering 16 states where BJP and its allies have traditionally been strong players, NDA has got 153 seats whereas UPA could get only 128 seats. 65 seats went into the kitty of other players.


[BThird Front parties are considered to be in the main fight with Congress account for total 165 seats. UPA/Congress has been able to garner 109 seats out of these. In fact, these five states have contributed 41% of the total 262 seats won by UPA at the national level.[/font]
The Third Front could only get 52 seats. NDA has won an insignificant 1 seat.
The performance of UPA becomes even better if we exclude Orissa. Out of 144 seats, the UPA bagged 103 seats.
People in these states might have wanted to bring a stable government at the centre that would be free from the manipulations of the small regional players. Since BJP is absent in these states, Congress became the logical beneficiary of these feelings of the people.

Last edited by ashdoc; August 23rd, 2009 at 04:40 AM.
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  #2  
Old August 23rd, 2009, 07:36 PM
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Re: BJPs internal report on poll debacle

Now I had also been saying so many of the things that this report states.

BJP could not even point out that the Congress was present when Kandahar plane hijack negotiations were going on. Congress also agreed to it. But our chewtiya Advani was busy heckling Manmohan as a 'weak' leader and kept touting his own penis as 'iron man' !! Asshole.

No connection with the youth - perfect!! In urban areas, you have to let go of your stupid 'we are culture police'. Stop this nonsense of not letting young college kids celebrate Valentine's day or going to a club. When Ram Sene did its stunts in Mangalaore, not a single BJP leader came on the TV or in media to oppose this bullshit by Ram Sene. All were busy deciding if Narendra Modi's penis would be stronger than Advani's.

Then there were chewtiyas like Raje in Rajasthan who opposed reservations for Gujars. How fucking dumb are these BJP idiots?? In Indian politics, the word reservation means sure succcess if you support it! The chewtiya BJP should have said to gujjars - You want 5%, no no.. we will give 10%!. Instead all were busy with showing Advani having a 'iron man' penis and Manmohan not having a penis at all! Chewtiya BJP!!
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Old August 24th, 2009, 09:04 AM
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Re: BJPs internal report on poll debacle

I think one the biggest things that BJP needs is some certificates/ references from the Muslims, without apparently seeking it..

as an antidote to poison against it, specially in the media.

also to dilute their opposition's constituencies.

They should, subtly, try to get some muslim leaders to endorse the good times during the NDA rule, and the quality of governance/ quality of life for common man in Gujarat.

Any references to Gujarat are most likely to bring out the bile of Godhara riots.

So, they should, again subtly, point out that BJP's victory in 2007 assembly elections, despite the opposition from everyone including BJP dissidents, was due to the fact that many muslims too voted for Modi govt.

Everyone in Gujarat feels that Modi is good for Gujarat.
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Old August 24th, 2009, 11:03 AM
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Re: BJPs internal report on poll debacle

Quote:
Originally Posted by raniraja View Post
They should, subtly, try to get some muslim leaders to endorse the good times during the NDA rule, and the quality of governance/ quality of life for common man in Gujarat.
No need to do this.Being in opposition is hurting Indian Junta and Media more than BJP itself . Guys it is not so bad. Why have to BJP lick the behinds of Muslims.

If only Hindus were good for whom prosperity they worked for 6 years they won't have to see these days. So they should enjoy their time in Opposition. The LokSabha session showed that they did. Let the Junta enjoy 100 rupees a KG Dal and have fun.
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Old August 24th, 2009, 11:13 AM
ashdoc ashdoc is offline
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Re: BJPs internal report on poll debacle

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randheer View Post
No need to do this.Being in opposition is hurting Indian Junta and Media more than BJP itself . Guys it is not so bad. Why have to BJP lick the behinds of Muslims.

you are right . the lok sabha election results show that the indian people are downright stupid , nothing else, and they are getting what they deserve . you talk of slave mentality of indian people ,i think it is present more towards congress than towards british .there is no need to kow tow before the almighty muslim ,let all other parties do that.

If only Hindus were good for whom prosperity they worked for 6 years they won't have to see these days. So they should enjoy their time in Opposition. The LokSabha session showed that they did. Let the Junta enjoy 100 rupees a KG Dal and have fun.
yeah ,let the indian people wallow in justly deserved inflation ,that is exactly what they deserve.

Last edited by ashdoc; August 24th, 2009 at 11:27 AM.
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Old August 24th, 2009, 11:25 AM
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Re: BJPs internal report on poll debacle

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randheer View Post
No need to do this.Being in opposition is hurting Indian Junta and Media more than BJP itself . Guys it is not so bad. Why have to BJP lick the behinds of Muslims. .

No..no.. i am not talking about ass licking.. Subtly I said, underhandedly, it should appear to come voluntarily from the muslim mouthpieces.. even if the BJP has to spend money like water to get them to do so.

Realpolitik ..


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Old August 24th, 2009, 11:25 AM
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Re: BJPs internal report on poll debacle

Quote:
Originally Posted by raniraja View Post

So, they should, again subtly, point out that BJP's victory in 2007 assembly elections, despite the opposition from everyone including BJP dissidents, was due to the fact that many muslims too voted for Modi govt.

Everyone in Gujarat feels that Modi is good for Gujarat.
What is the proof that Muslims voted for the BJP?? To get 1 Muslim vote they sacrifice 5 Hindu votes.

They should now decide to run ONLY after Hindu votes. If they do this they will at least get 180 + seats if they try and become another Kangress people will reduce it to 2 seats by next elections.

Advani is now known more for the Jinnah issue than for the Ram Mandir. With this the case and if they do not return to the Hindu roots maybe I too will vote based of the best of the worst candidate available and not for BJP as a party.
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Old August 24th, 2009, 11:31 AM
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Re: BJPs internal report on poll debacle

Quote:
Originally Posted by viking View Post
What is the proof that Muslims voted for the BJP?? To get 1 Muslim vote they sacrifice 5 Hindu votes.

They should now decide to run ONLY after Hindu votes. If they do this they will at least get 180 + seats if they try and become another Kangress people will reduce it to 2 seats by next elections.

Advani is now known more for the Jinnah issue than for the Ram Mandir. With this the case and if they do not return to the Hindu roots maybe I too will vote based of the best of the worst candidate available and not for BJP as a party.
viking is correct. what is point in trying the impossible .......getting muslim votes .......if that is tried the BJP will lose its core hindu votebank and become dhobi kaa kutta .......na ghar kaa na ghat kaa .
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Old August 24th, 2009, 12:40 PM
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Re: BJPs internal report on poll debacle

You guys are talking as though there is a 80% Hindu vote bank. sorry to bust your bubble NO.. There is no Hindu vote bank. There muslim vote bank and whole lot of Caste vote banks. BJP should start playing caste card as it did in Karnataka to win elections.

In Karnataka BJP did not win because of Hinduthva, it won because Lingayata vote bank which Yadi belongs too. You think BJP would have won in Karnataka if the project Anatha Kumar(Brahmin) as CM.
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Old August 24th, 2009, 01:28 PM
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Re: BJPs internal report on poll debacle

Media has acted as the Moll or Mistress of Congress .

Media played an important role in seducing and later on doing character assasination of BJP Leaders and BJP as a whole like a Vamp or Moll of a Don does ( Bindu or Helen for Ajeeth in 1970 movies ).

Very Good.Soon Congress will not have to take pains to send its Spokes persons to take part in debates against BJP. There will be one BJP Spokesperson versus 4 Ex-BJP Persons . Govindacharya,Uma Bharti,Jaswant Singh,Sudheendra Kulkarni the list is increasing day by day.

What is funny is that Media behaves like a Prostitute and lures fired or resigned BJPites with unmatched vigour. Sudheendra resigned yesterday and today he was on T.V program "We the people" where Barkha Dutt was almost hugging him literally. These guys get attention only when they abuse BJP and Media use them very effectively.

What is indeed shameful that these guys who claim to be such great intellectuals get carried away by such cheap Media tricks.Thats shows that they have problems in their characters in firts place. I am ashamed at the behaviour of Govindacharya,Jaswant singh and Sudheendra Kulkarni and I am really proud of Madan lal Khurana who in his expulsion period never opened his mouth to media though he may have joined Uma Bharti's party.
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